According to the business leaders surveyed (around 8,500 companies and establishments surveyed between 26 June and 3 July 2026), activity strengthened significantly in June in the manufacturing sector and rebounded in market services and construction, following a month of May marked by closures and holidays due to the timing of bank holidays. Businesses affected by the heatwave in the second half of June adjusted their working hours and, on the whole, managed to maintain their level of activity.
In industry, activity grew across most sectors, driven in particular by the technology and defence sectors, as well as by a catch‑up effect, particularly in the automotive sector. Cash positions were still above the level considered normal in industry, but deteriorated very slightly in the services sector. Business leaders expect activity to further increase in July, albeit at a more moderate pace in industry and services, and at a fairly weak pace in construction.
Order books were considered to be almost normal in industry but were still weak in construction. The uncertainty indicator, based on a textual analysis of business leaders’ comments, continued to fall, returning to pre‑Middle East conflict levels. Business leaders’ concern s continued to be mainly focused on the international tensions, which are weighing on the overall economic climate, and on input prices.
Supply difficulties eased overall, although they remained acute in certain industrial sectors (computer, electronic and optical products and aeronautics). The rise in raw material and energy prices abated. Selling prices continued to increase, albeit at a more moderate pace than in May.
Based on the survey results, supplemented by other indicators, we estimate that GDP should grow by 0.2% in the second quarter.
