Published on the 18th of November 2024
The Banque de France publishes a range of monthly and quarterly economic surveys that provide a snapshot of the French economy in the form of business climate indicators and short-term forecasts.
According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 29 October and 6 November), activity in October rose in industry (driven by agri‑food and capital goods), while activity in market services remained sluggish. It picked up again in the structural works sector, owing to txhe rescheduling of building work put on hold during the Olympic Games.
According to business expectations, in November activity should show little change in industry and market services and decline in construction. Order books were still deemed weak in virtually all industrial sectors, with the notable exception of aeronautics, reducing business leaders’ visibility on their activity over the coming months.
Selling prices continued to normalise, especially in market services. Inflation should therefore remain under control.
However, our uncertainty indicator based on comments from the companies surveyed remains relatively high in all sectors, with responses highlighting the domestic political situation, the impact of the fiscal debates, as well as the international environment (upcoming US elections).
Recruitment difficulties declined markedly in the three major sectors: they were reported by 31% of companies across all sectors, down from 35% in September.
Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we estimate that underlying growth will continue on its slightly positive upward trend in the fourth quarter. This would result in GDP remaining more or less unchanged from the previous quarter, taking into account the adverse repercussions of the Olympics effect, estimated to be ‑0.2 percentage points of GDP.
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Updated on the 18th of November 2024