According to the business leaders participating in our survey (approximately 8,500 companies or establishments surveyed between 27 May and 3 June), activity in May increased in industry, the market services covered by the survey, and construction.
- For June, activity is expected to improve moderately in market services, change little in industry and decline slightly in construction.
- However, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding this outlook, although our uncertainty indicator has fallen again in industry and services.
- Meanwhile, supply difficulties remain significant in industry (61% in May, after 64% in April) and construction (55%, after 54%).
- Recruitment difficulties increased in May to 55%, particularly in industry and services.
- At the same time, the share of business leaders reporting a rise in their selling prices remains high, although it fell this month, in line with the more moderate increase in raw material prices.
- After a very strong rebound in 2021, GDP fell in the first quarter of 2022, mainly due to the effects of the Omicron epidemic and the first impacts of the war in Ukraine.
The results of our survey, combined with other data, suggest that, after a slight increase in the level of activity in April compared to March, GDP should increase more significantly in May, due to a rebound in industry and especially in services. Early indications suggest that activity should pick up slightly again in June. Against the backdrop of a still very uncertain environment, we currently estimate that GDP growth for the second quarter of 2022 should be around ¼% compared to the previous quarter.
