France’s Green Horizon: Supply-Side Drivers for a Competitive Transition in Export Markets
Working Paper Series no. 990. France's green transition offers a unique lens into the interplay between decarbonisation strategies and industrial competitiveness within the context of a high-income economy. As a major European economy, France stands at a critical moment in balancing its reliance on nuclear power with the acceleration of renewable energy adoption and fostering green industrial innovation. This is relevant as the country faces increasing pressure to align with the EU’s 2050 carbon-neutrality goals while addressing domestic challenges, including fiscal constraints. This study employs a descriptive methodology based on a comparative analysis of indicators. By analysing indicators such as R&D spending, patenting trends, renewable energy costs, and green export shares, the paper assesses France’s green goods export competitiveness, industrial strengths, energy transition inputs, and transition risks relative to other G7 nations, China, and Spain. The findings reveal that while France benefits from strong nuclear infrastructure and high Green Complexity Potential, its share in global green exports has declined—from 4.7% in 2000 to 2.5% in 2022. Furthermore, lagging renewable energy deployment, limited fiscal support, and gaps in green innovation suggest that France risks falling behind some European counterparts, such as Germany or Italy, in achieving leadership in the green transition. However, opportunities exist in high-complexity sectors such as hydrogen, environmental monitoring, and carbon capture technologies, where France’s existing capabilities can drive competitiveness and export growth. Its participation in a single European green good export market is a key strategy to strengthen a competitive transition in France and Europe more widely.
France’s transition to a low-carbon economy offers insight into the complex balance between reducing carbon emissions and maintaining industrial competitiveness in a high-income economy. As a major EU economy, France must align its reliance on nuclear power with the need to expand renewable energy and foster green innovation. These efforts are crucial for meeting the EU’s 2050 carbon-neutrality goals while addressing domestic challenges, such as fiscal limitations and slow renewable energy deployment. This paper focuses on how France can enhance its competitiveness in green manufactured goods export markets as part of its broader transition. Using a descriptive comparative methodology, it examines key indicators like R&D investments, patenting trends, renewable energy costs, and manufactured green goods export shares assessing France’s performance, from a supply-side perspective, relative to other G7 nations, China, and Spain. The study highlights risks if France fails to close gaps in renewable and innovation, while identifying sectors with high growth potential from a green good exports angle. The recent Draghi report underscores urgency of evaluating European competitiveness amid global sustainability shifts. This paper complements the report by examining France’s position in the European green economy and its ability to contribute to and benefit from this transition. France’s declining green manufacture goods export share reflect broader challenges and stress the need for coordinated policy and industrial efforts. A key contribution is the exploration of France’s role in a potential unified European green export market, highlighting the benefits of economic integration.
France maintains a low-carbon electricity system, with 65% of its electricity generated from nuclear energy. However, its adoption of renewable energy remains limited. Despite fiscal constraints, France aims to expand its renewable energy capacity by 2030. Targets include 54-60 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic capacity and 34.7 GW of onshore wind power. Achieving these goals requires improved infrastructure, streamlined permitting, and advanced energy storage. France’s strengths lie in its nuclear infrastructure and high Green Complexity Potential”, which measures its ability to diversify into advanced green industries. The country has shown strong capabilities in sectors like hydrogen and environmental monitoring, supported by consistent R&D investments. Still, its global green good export share fell from 4.7% in 2000 to 2.5% in 2022, revealing a gap between innovation and market performance. Greater participation in an integrated European green goods market could amplify France’s efforts and competitiveness in global value chains. France faces significant opportunities in green technology sectors, including: hydrogen technologies, environmental monitoring. Areas like carbon capture and renewable energy systems offer also opportunities for growth but require stronger policy and industrial support. The country’s fiscal challenges could hinder progress. Addressing these challenges will require targeted investments, policy reforms, and a focus on translating innovation into industrial and export strengths. With clear strengths in innovation and industry, the country must now close gaps in deployment and export competitiveness. By leveraging its high-complexity sectors and improving frameworks, France can reinforce its role in the European and global green economy.
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Updated on the 29th of April 2025