ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – June 2026

Compared with May 2026:

median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months decreased significantly, as did median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead decreased slightly, while median expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged;
expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months decreased;
expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months decreased, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time increased.

Published on 24th of July 2026

Inflation

In June the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased to 3.6%, from 4.0% in May. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also decreased, down to 3.0%, from 3.5%, as did expectations for inflation three years ahead, which declined to 2.8%, from 2.9%. Expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged, at 2.4%. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased for the second consecutive month, but remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the war in the Middle East. Respondents in lower-income quintiles continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in higher-income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

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Updated on the 24th of July 2026