ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – June 2024

Compared with May 2024:

  • median consumer inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months declined noticeably, whilemedian inflation expectations for the next 12 months and for three years ahead remainedunchanged;
     
  • expectations for nominal income over the next 12 months increased, while spending growthexpectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged;
     
  • expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became more negative, while theexpected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
     
  • expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased slightly, whileexpectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead edged down.

Published on the 26th of July 2024

Inflation

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months declined noticeably in June to 4.5%, from 4.9% in May. Meanwhile, median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 2.8%, after having fallen in May to their lowest level since September 2021. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead were also unchanged in June, at 2.3%. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at its lowest level since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and those aged 55-70). (Inflation results)

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Updated on the 26th of July 2024

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