According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 27 September and 5 October), activity continued to rise in industry in September, while accelerating in market services and remaining broadly stable in construction. In industry, the increase was weaker than expected and concealed significant disparities across sectors: production remained strong in aeronautics, but was subdued again in wood, paper and printing and in rubber, plastics and glass. Industrial order books were also mixed, with aeronautics and electrical equipment reporting particularly strong orders, and other sectors indicating a deterioration.
In market services, activity was supported by business services but declined in transportation and in food and beverage services. In construction, activity rose only marginally, despite a rebound in structural works fuelled by a catch-up in work delayed by the summer heatwaves. Cash positions deteriorated slightly in industry and more noticeably in services. For October, business leaders expect industrial production to accelerate. In market services, activity is expected to continue expanding, albeit at a slower pace, while construction activity is seen remaining almost stable.
Uncertainty rose significantly in September, interrupting the downward trend observed since the peak in March. Concerns centred mainly on fuel prices, the broader economic environment and purchasing power. Supply difficulties remained stable overall, although they were particularly acute in some fast-growing industrial sectors. Industrial firms also reported further rises in input prices, which they were only partially able to pass through to selling prices, resulting in margin compression. Recruitment difficulties increased slightly and were reported by 18% of surveyed firms.
Based on the survey results, together with other available indicators, we estimate that GDP grew by 0.1% in the third quarter.
