Published on the 24th of October 2024
The Banque de France publishes a range of monthly and quarterly economic surveys that provide a snapshot of the French economy in the form of business climate indicators and short-term forecasts.
According to the business leaders surveyed (around 8,500 companies or establishments questioned between 26 September and 3 October), activity increased in September in industry, albeit unevenly across the sub-sectors; it picked up in construction despite unfavourable weather conditions, thanks to a catch-up from August when there were more days of holiday than in previous years; and it slowed significantly in market services after the positive impact of the Olympic Games in August. According to business expectations for October, activity is set to continue its moderate rise in industry, remain sluggish in services and show little change in the construction sector, in line with the low level of order books in the structural works sector. Order books remained weak in almost all sectors of industry, with the notable exception of aeronautics.
Selling prices continued to normalise. However, our uncertainty indicator based on comments from the companies surveyed rose sharply this month across all sectors, with responses stressing the domestic political situation and the international environment.
Recruitment difficulties remained significant for 35% of companies. They rose in the construction sector (40%). On the basis of the survey results, supplemented by other indicators, we expect GDP to rise significantly in the third quarter of 2024. This would reflect underlying growth of 0.2%, plus the temporary impact of the Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris of around a quarter of a point. This forecast, revised slightly upwards on the previous month, is subject to both upside risks due to the possible spillover effects of the Olympic Games, and downside risks due to uncertainty.
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Updated on the 24th of October 2024