Heatwaves and economic activity: what can we learn from business leaders’ comments?

Post No. 466. The year 2026 was marked by three successive heatwaves, an exceptional drought and severe wildfires. The Banque de France’s Monthly Business Survey makes it possible to track, almost in real-time, how these events affected firms, and the differences in impacts across sectors. This information is then used to compile the Banque de France’s GDP growth forecast. Overall, the impact on activity is expected to remain limited in 2026 and should mainly be concentrated in agriculture.