This 2026 Letter takes an innovative approach by bringing together two time horizons. Once again, it comes at a time of exceptionally high uncertainty: this time, the conflict in the Middle East is driving the urgency. But we cannot limit our economic outlook to simply moving from one crisis to another. Therefore, this Letter also takes a longer term view, examining the performance of the French economy over the past fifteen years and since the onset of the current era of crises. How is France’s economy faring in this new world?
Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the duration and scale of the shock, …
