ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – August 2024

Compared with July 2024:

  • median consumer inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months and consumer inflationexpectations for the next 12 months both declined, as did median inflation expectations for threeyears ahead;
  • expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased, while expectationsfor spending growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged;
  • expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, while theexpected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
  • expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased slightly, whileexpectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead remained unchanged.

Published on the 27th of September 2024

Inflation


The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months declined further in August to 3.9%, from 4.1% in July. Perceptions of past inflation have thus declined by 4.5 percentage points since their peak of 8.4% in September 2023. Meanwhile, inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged down to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously, and stood at their lowest level since September 2021. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead edged down by 0.1 percentage points in August to 2.3%, back to their June level. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at its lowest level since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. While the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups, expectations for lower income quintiles were slightly above those for higher income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and 55-70). (Inflation results)

Income and consumption

Consumer nominal income growth expectations increased to 1.2%, from 1.1% in June. The increase
in income expectations was mainly driven by the lowest two quintiles. Perceptions of nominal
spending growth over the previous 12 months decreased further to 5.2%, from 5.4% in July and 5.8%
in June. The latest datapoint continues a sustained decline which started in March 2023. Expectations
for nominal spending growth over the next 12 months remained stable at 3.2%. Nominal spending
expectations are at their lowest level since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. (Income
and consumption results
)

Updated on the 27th of September 2024