New approaches to macroeconomic monitoring, nowcasting and forecasting
Banque de France and the OECD’s NAEC Innovation Lab are holding a virtual conference on June 8th 2021 from 1:45 pm (Paris time, GMT+2), featuring new research on nontraditional data and machine learning approaches in macroeconomics.
Big data and machine learning techniques have been increasingly used in macroeconomics in recent years. The Covid-19 crisis highlighted the key role of new approaches to track, nowcast and forecast activity. For economists, central bankers and international organisations, these new approaches can provide quasi-real time insights, measure new concepts and provide greater granularity as an input to policy-making.
13:45 Welcome address: Isabelle Thouzery, Deputy to the BDF General Director Information Systems and Chief Data Officer; Sebastian Barnes, OECD NAEC Innovation LAB
14:00 Keynote address: James Stock (Harvard University), High-Frequency Behavior of the US Economy During the Pandemic
Session 1 – Chairman: Michel Juillard
14:45 National accounts in a world of naturally occurring data by Stephen Hansen (Imperial College London), Greg Buda (Barcelona GSE), Vasco Carvalho (U. Cambridge), Alvaro Ortiz, Tomasa Rodrigo (BBVA Research), Sevi Rodriguez Mora (U. Edinburgh)
15:15 Tracking activity in real time with Google Trends, by Nicolas Woloszko (OECD, NAEC Innovation LAB)
15:45 The power of text-based indicators in forecasting the Italian economic activity, by Valentina Aprigliano (Banca d’Italia), Simone Emiliozzi, Gabriele Guaitoli, Andrea Luciani, Juri Marcucci, Libero Monteforte
16:15 Coffee break
Session 2 – Chairman: Jean-Charles Bricongne
16:30 Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions, by Jacopo Cimadomo (European Central Bank), with Giannone Domenico (Amazon), Michele Lenza, Andrej Sokol, Francesca Monti
17:00 Can satellite data predict industrial production? By Thomas Pical (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), Baptiste Meunier, Jean-Charles Bricongne (Banque de France)
17:30 Forecasting UK inflation bottom up, by Andreas Joseph (Bank of England), Eleni Kalamara, George Kapetanios and Galina Potjagailo
18:00 Closing remarks
Online registration :
Updated on: 06/18/2021 09:39