Task Force on Global Trade “Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade: what is the new normal?”

Matthieu Bussiere, Guillaume Gaulier and Walter Steingress (research economists at the DGEI) participated at a workshop on the “Global Trade Slowdown” in Paris on June 20th. The workshop brought together fifty researchers from various central banks as well as the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development and the European Commission. 

Co-chaired by Frank Moss (European Central Bank) and Bruno Cabrillac (Director of the Economics and International and European Relations Directorate), the workshop is part of the temporary Task Force on Global Trade initiated by the International Relationship Committee of the European System of Central Banks.


Opening address 

Bruno Cabrillac (Banque de France) and Frank Moss (European Central Bank) 


Presentation of the Task Force report 

- Judit Rariga (Magyar Nemzeti Bank): Introduction and conceptual framework 

- Ulf Slopek (Deutsche Bundesbank): Stylized facts and compositional changes 

- Alexander Al-Haschimi (European Central Bank): Global value chains 

- Martin Gächter (European Central Bank): Trade and financial frictions 


Discussion I 

Bernard Hoekman (European University Institute) 

Discussion II 

Joseph Francois (World Trade Institute) 


Session 1: The role of China in global trade 

Chair: Louis Morel (Bank of Canada) 

- Guillaume Gaulier (Banque de France), Walter Steingress (Banque de France) and Soledad Zignago (Banque de France): “The role of China in the recent trade slowdown”  Slide 


- George Alessandria (University of Rochester), Horag Choi (Monash University) and Dan Lu (University of Rochester): “China’s Imbalances: Trade Integration in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model”   Slide 


Discussion: Przemek Wozniak (European Commission)  Slide 


Session 2: The dynamics of global trade 

Chair: Jaime Martinez-Martin (Banco de España) 

- Aqib Aslam (International Monetary Fund), Emine Boz (International Monetary Fund), Eugenio Cerutti (International Monetary Fund), Marcos Poplawski (International Monetary Fund) and Petia Topalova (International Monetary Fund): “Global Trade: What’s Behind the Slowdown?” 


- Alessandro Borin (Banca d’Italia), Virginia Di Nino (Banca d’Italia), Michele Mancini (Banca d’Italia) and Massimo Sbracia (Banca d’Italia): “The Cyclicality of the Income Elasticity of Trade” 


Discussion: Walter Steingress (Banque de France) 

- John Lewis (Bank of England) and Selien De Schryder (Bank of England): “Export dynamics since the Great Trade Collapse: a cross-country analysis”  Slide 


- Alexei Kireyev (International Monetary Fund) and Andrei Kireyev (Lebedev Institute): “Can Network Effects and Counter-Shock Policies Weaken International Trade”  Slide 


Discussion: Julia Wörz (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)  Slide 


Session 3: Monetary and trade policies 

Chair: Cyrille Schwellnus (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) 

- Malik Shukayev (University of Alberta) and Yuko Imura (Bank of Canada): “The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy”  Slide 


- Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies), Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies) and Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies): “Assessing the Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports”  Slide 


Discussion: Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France)



Organizing committee:

Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), Bruno Cabrillac (Banque de France), Martin Gaechter (European Central Bank), Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France), Alexander Al-Haschimi (European Central Bank), Stelios Makrydakis (European Central Bank), Frank Moss (European Central Bank), Walter Steingress (Banque de France)

Updated on: 06/12/2018 10:59