Research Newsletter - First quarter of 2018

Editorial

What does recent research tell us about the pains and gains of globalisation?

Juan Carluccio

 “…Some occupations and skill categories benefit from offshoring while others tend to lose, mainly those in competition with foreign factors.... Still, offshoring can make everyone better off if productivity gains are large enough…”

Interviews

To raise our profile and exploit the research to the maximum

Olivier Garnier

“… a central bank’s research and analysis … should serve to guide central bank policymaking and, more broadly, to inform public opinion on economic and monetary issues. It is one of the objectives that sets it apart from purely academic research and from the analysis conducted by other institutions, such as banks.”

To build close ties between the academic world and the more institutional one of the Banque de France

Marc Joëts

“…let's say that having this dual role as an economist and researcher is an intellectually stimulating and satisfying position as it allows me to bridge the academic world and the more institutional aspects of research in the broad sense. “

Focus

Fundamental disagreement

Philippe Andrade

“… economic agents disagree about output growth or inflation not just in the coming quarters but also at very long horizons. Put differently, these forecasters appear to have different views on long-term fundamentals such as potential output growth or the Federal Reserve’s inflation target.”

Stagnation of productivity in France: a legacy of the crisis or a structural slowdown?

Lecat Rémy

“…the slowdown has been widespread and does not hinge on a particular sector, firm size or sector-size series, such as the Information and Communication Technology sector. In addition, the last downward trend break occurred mostly before the financial crisis, although some sectors were hit during that period.”

Nowcasting US inflation using a MIDAS augmented Phillips curve

Clément Marsilli

“…Due to its ease of integration and straightforward interpretation of its results, the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) model is the subject of growing interest from public institutions, notably for the nowcasting.”

The grape depression: The impact of the 19th century French wine crisis on crime rates

Vincent Bignon

 “…the phylloxera crisis caused a substantial increase in property crime rates and a significant decrease in violent crimes. The effect on property crime was driven by the negative income shock induced by the crisis... At the same time, the decrease in alcohol consumption induced by the phylloxera crisis contributed to reducing violent crimes.”

Using survey data to predict GDP growth

Bertrand Pluyaud

“…this model produces more accurate nowcasts than a number of alternative models... Moreover, for the third month, the addition of monthly macroeconomic data (hard data) makes the results even more accurate.”

Updated on: 04/17/2018 15:42