International Trade: The New Normal

The Banque de France, CEPII, CEPR and University of Surrey are jointly organising a workshop to explore economic dimensions of the “new normal” environment of international trade, which has been severely impacted by recent events and associated rises in trade costs. Increases in tariffs and sanctions (e.g. U.S-China trade war), globalisation backlash, institutional challenges (e.g. Brexit, WTO), and Covid-19 are imposing a rethinking of multilateral trade and the way that firms organise production across borders.

The workshop will take place on two half-days 10-11 June 2021. The programme include seven academic papers, a Guest Lecture by Gene Grossman, a keynote presentation by Paola Conconi. A Policy Round Table with Lionel Fontagné, Beata, Marion Jensen and Robert Koopman and moderated by Martin Sandbu.

Thursday 10 June

13:15 Welcome speech by Bruno Cabrillac (Banque de France)

Session on Trade Frictions, Chair: Juan Carluccio (Banque de France & Surrey)

13:30-14:15  Trade Imbalances and the Rise of Protectionism
Philippe Martin, Sciences Po & CEPR (with Samuel Delpeuch & Etienne Fize)

14:15-15:00 Labor Unions and the Electoral Consequences of Trade Liberalization
Emanuel Ornelas, Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV & CEPR (with Pedro Molina Ogeda & Rodrigo R. Soares)

15:00-15:45  Trade Protection Along Supply Chains
Keynote by Paola Conconi, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ECARES) & CEPR, introduced by Sébastien Jean, CEPII

15:45-16:00 Break

16:00-17:15 Policy Panel

Lionel Fontagné, Banque de France & CEPII
Marion Jansen, OECD
Beata Javorcik, University of Oxford, EBRD & CEPR
Robert Koopman, World Trade Organization, Graduate Institute & CEPR
Moderator: Martin Sandbu, Financial Times

17:15-18:00 Escaping Import Competition in China
Ann Harrison, University of California Berkeley (with Ana Cecilia Fieler) 
 

Friday 11 June 2021

Session on COVID, Chair: Maurizio Zanardi (Surrey)

14:30-15:15 The Margins of Adjustment of French Exports to the Covid Crisis
Sebastian Stumpner, Banque de France (with Jean-Charles Bricongne, Juan Carluccio, Guillaume Gaulier & Lionel Fontagné)

15:15-16:00 Globalization and Pandemics
Pol Antras, Harvard University and CEPR (with Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg)

16:00-16:45 Guest lecture by Gene Grossman, Princeton University & CEPR, Introduced by Beata Javorcik (University of Oxford, EBRD & CEPR)

16:45-17:00  Break

17:00-17:45  Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, University of Texas at Austin (with Andrei A. Levchenko, Barthélémy Bonadio & Zhen Huo)

17:45-18:30  Crumbling Economy, Booming Trade: The Surprising Resilience of World Trade in 2020
Ralph Ossa, University of Zurich and CEPR (with Mathilde Le Moigne & Marcos Ritel)

Organising committee: Jean-Charles Bricongne, Juan Carluccio, Olivier de Bandt, Lionel Fontagné, Beata Javorcik, Maurizio Zanardi

Scientific committee: Juan Carluccio, Lionel Fontagné, Beata Javorcik, Maurizio Zanardi