Macroeconomic and Financial Vulnerability Indicators in Advanced Economies

Banque de France and the BETA research laboratory (University de Strasbourg, University Nancy 2 and the French National Centre for Scientific Research CNRS) are organizing a conference on “Macroeconomic and Financial Vulnerability Indicators in Advanced Economies”. The conference will be held in Strasbourg on 13 and 14 September 2012.

The conference aims at bringing together contributions from the academic world, experts from central banks, ministries and economic institutions, rating agencies as well as international organizations. The general idea of the conference is to present some relevant research papers and studies in relation with vulnerability indicators. The scope of the conference includes several key topics: global imbalances, financial sector instabilities and macro prudential policies, public finance sustainability as well as a session devoted to the recent advances in vulnerability indicators modeling. Keynote lectures will be given by Paul de Grauwe (KU Leuven) and Daniele Franco (Banca d’Italia).

Papers will be considered for a publication in two journals: the International Journal of Finance and Economics (Sessions 1 & 2) and Applied Economics (Sessions 3 & 4). The papers will be selected according to a standard referring process.

If you want to attend the conference, could you please send an e-mail to:

Organizing Committee: Carine Bouthevillain, Vladimir Borgy and Gilles Dufrénot (Banque de France) Claude Diebolt (BETA)

Conference papers

Session 1: Banking risk and macroprudential issues 


Paper 1: Defining Integrated Risk Scenarios to Identify Financial Vulnerabilities 

Heiko HesseFerhan Salman, International Monetary Fund, Christian Schmieder, Bank for International Settlement 


Paper 2: Booms and Systemic Banking Crises 

Frédéric BoissayFrank Smets, European Central Bank, Fabrice Collard, University of Bern 


Paper 3: Macroprudential policy indicators for the UK

Henrik AndersenChristian CastroMarc FaragJulia Giese, Bank of England


Paper 4: Liquidity Shocks, Bank Balance Sheets, and International Lending During the 2007–08 Crisis 

Camelia Minoiu, International Monetary Fund, Tümer Kaplan, Fannie Mae


Session 2: Sovereign bond and financial sector instabilities

Paper 1: The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU 

Antonio Afonso, Technical University of Lisbon, Michael Arghyrou, Cardiff Business School, Alexandros Kontonikas, University of Glasgow 


Paper 2: Using policy intervention to identify financial stress

Mark CarlsonKurt LewisWilliam Nelson, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system 


Paper 3: Early Warning Indicators for the German Banking System: A Macroprudential Analysis

Nadya Jahn, University of Münster, Thomas Kick, Deutsche Bundesbank


Paper 4 : Implied cost of capital (ICC) as a new macro-prudential tool

Alessandro Conciarelli, Banca d’Italia


Session 3: Fiscal vulnerability and public finance tools

Paper 1: Financial, Fiscal and Real Economic Vulnerabilities: Implications for the Euro Area Surveillance Framework 

Christian Kastrop, Werner Ebert, Stefanie Wolff-Hamacher, Sarah Ciaglia, German Ministry of Finance, Berlin 


Paper 2: Fiscal vulnerability and financial repression in France since 1950

Marcel AloyAnne Péguin-Feissolle, Aix-Marseille Université, Gilles Dufrénot Banque de France, CEPII, Aix-Marseille Université 


Paper 3: Declan CostelloJonas Fischer, European Commission

Scoreboard for the surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances


Session 4: New tools to assess vulnerability

Paper 1: Interpretation and limits of sustainability tests in public finance 

Gildas LaméMatthieu LequienPierre-Alain Pionnier, INSEE 


Paper 2: Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximising debt targets 

Cristina Checherita-WestphalPhilipp Rother, European Central Bank, Andrew Hughes Hallet, George Mason University 


Paper 3: Leading Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from Developed Countries 

Jan Babecký, Tomáš Havránek, Jakub Matějů, Marek Rusnák, Kateřina Šmídková, Bořek Vašíček, Czech National Bank 


Paper 4: A toolkit to assessing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks in advanced economies

Andrea Schaechter et al., International Monetary Fund

Updated on: 05/31/2017 17:19