Annual workshop: ESCB research Cluster 2 Research Cluster on International Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Labour Economics, Competitiveness and EMU Governance

Wednesday, 7th November

13:30 – 14:00

Registration & coffee

14:00 – 14:30

Welcome address : Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier (Banque de France - Deputy Director, Directorate Microeconomic and Structural Analysis)

Introduction: Antoine Berthou (Banque de France) & James Costain (ECB)

14:30 – 16:30

Allocation, finance, & productivity
Session chair: Peter McAdam (ECB)

Allocative efficiency & finance
Enrico Sette (Banca d’Italia), Andrea Petrella (Banca d’Italia), & Andrea Linarello (Banca d’Italia)
Discussant: Filippos Petroulakis (ECB) - Slides

Investment, financial frictions & the dynamic effects of monetary policy
Clodomiro Ferreira (Banco de España), James Cloyne (University of California Davis, NBER & CEPR), Maren Froemel (London Business School) & Paolo Surico (London Business School & CEPR) - Slides
Discussant: Philip Vermeulen (ECB) - Slides

Local sourcing & production efficiency
Emmanuel Dhyne (Banque Nationale de Belgique) & Cédric Duprez (Banque Nationale de Belgique) - Slides
Discussant: Claire Giordano (Banca d’Italia) - Slides

16:30 – 17:00

Coffee break

17:00 – 18:00

Summary of ongoing project-based research
Session chair:  Antoine Berthou (Banque de France)

Productivity & selection versus reallocation
Matteo Bugamelli (Banca d’Italia)

Firm dynamics
Emmanuel Dhyne (Banque Nationale de Belgique)

CompNet
Paloma Lopez (ECB)

8:30 – 9:30

Coffee

9:30 – 10:50

Integration vs. Protectionism
Session chair: Matteo Bugamelli (Banca d’Italia)

The cost of trade protectionism: evidence from Spanish firms & non-tariff measures
Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España) & Dmitri Kirpichev (CEMFI) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Andrea Lamorgese (Banca d’Italia, TBC) - Slides

The effects of euro adoption on firm-level exports
Jaanika Meriküll (Bank of Estonia) & Tibor Lalinsky (National Bank of Slovakia) - Slides
Discussant: João Amador (Banco de Portugal) - Slides

11:30 - 12:10

A structural quantitative analysis of services trade de-liberalization
Sven Blank (Deutsche Bundesbank), Peter Egger (ETH Zürich), Valeria Merlo (Universität Tübingen) & Georg Wamser (Universität Tübingen) - Paper -
Discussant: Vanessa Gunella (ECB)

12:30 – 14:00

Lunch

14:00 – 16:00

Protectionism & imbalances
Session chair: Jesper Lindé (Sveriges Riksbank)

Nobody wins: Protectionism & (un)employment in a model-based analysis
Pascal Jacquinot (ECB), Matija Lozej (Central Bank of Ireland) & M. Pisani  (Banca d’Italia)
Discussant: Daniele Siena (Banque de France) - Slides

Global imbalances, labor market reforms & precautionary savings
Nikolai Stähler (Deutsche Bundesbank), Stéphane Moyen  (Deutsche Bundesbank), & Brigitte Hochmuth (University of Erlangen-Nürnberg) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Olivier Pierrard (Central Bank of Luxembourg)

Trade & currency weapons
Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Paris School of Economics) & Pauline Wibaux (Paris School of Economics) - Slides
Discussant: Mathias Hoffmann (Deutsche Bundesbank) - Slides

16:00 – 16:20

Coffee break

16:20 – 18:20

Productivity, growth, & structural change
Session chair: Ana Lamo (ECB)

Connecting to power: Political connections, innovation, & firm dynamics
Francesca Lotti (Banca d’Italia), Ufuk Akcigit (University of Chicago & NBER) & Salomé Baslandze (Einaudi Institute for Economics & Finance & CEPR) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Juan Mora Sanguinetti (Banco de España)

Computer adoption & the changing labor market
Filip Rozsypal (Danmarks Nationalbank) & Miguel Morin (Alan Turing Institute) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Antonin Bergeaud (Banque de France) - Slides

Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence, & the productivity slowdown
Michaela Schmöller (Bank of Finland) & Martin Spitzer (ECB) - Slides
Discussant: Marcin Bielecki (Narodowy Bank Polski) - Slides

20:00

Conference dinner

8:30 – 9:00

Coffee

9:00 – 11:00

Adjustment of labor markets
Session chair: Jan Babecky (Czech National Bank)

Short-time work & employment in the Great Recession in France
Sandra Nevoux (Banque de France), Pierre Cahuc (Ecole Polythecnique) & Francis Kramarz (CREST-ENSAE) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Matthias Hertweck (Deutsche Bundesbank) - Slides

Immigrants, labor market dynamics, & adjustment to shocks in the euro area
Gaetano Basso (Banca d’Italia), Francesco D’Amuri (Banca d’Italia) & Giovanni Peri (UC Davis & NBER) - Paper
Discussant: John Lewis (Bank of England) - Slides

Labor market asymmetries in a monetary union: implications for optimal policy
Rana Sajedi (Bank of England) & Guilherme Bandeira (Banco de España)
Discussant: Theodora Kosma (Bank of Greece) - Slides

11:00 – 11:30

Coffee break

11:30 – 12:30

Keynote Lecture :Consumption-led growth
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, (UC Berkeley)- Slides

12:30 – 14:00

Lunch

14:00 – 15:20

Fiscal multipliers & fiscal sustainability
Session chair: Mathias Hoffmann (Bundesbank)

On the merits of conventional vs. unconventional fiscal policy
Matthieu Lemoine (Banque de France) & Jesper Lindé (Sveriges Riksbank & CEPR) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Ansgar Rannenberg (Banque Nationale de Belgique) - Slides

Sectoral heterogeneity, production networks, & the effects of government spending
Omar Rachedi (Banco de España), Hafedh Bouakez (HEC Montréal), Emiliano Santoro (University of Copenhagen)
Discussant: Luca Metelli (Banca d’Italia) - Slides

15:20 – 15:40

Coffee break

15:40 -17:40

Fiscal & monetary policy interactions
Session chair: Luca Dedola (ECB)

Fiscal & monetary interactions: a strategic approach
Jean Barthelemy (Banque de France) & Guillaume Plantin (Sciences Po) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Roberto Billi (Sveriges Riksbank & ECB) - Slides

Dynamic fiscal limits & monetary-fiscal policy interactions
Luca Zavalloni (Central Bank of Ireland), Niccolo Battistini (ECB) & Giovanni Callegari (ECB)
Discussant: Robert Ambrisko (Czech National Bank) - Slides

Designing QE in a fiscally sound monetary union
Tilman Bletzinger (ECB) & Leopold von Thadden (ECB) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Dominik Thaler (Banco de España) - Slides

17:40

Adjourn conference