“Secular Stagnation and Growth Measurement” - Conference organised by the Banque de France and the Collège de France

This conference will be introduced by Mr. François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, and will gather leading academics such as Philippe Aghion, Barry Eichengreen and Robert Gordon, as well as high-ranking officials from national and international institutions, such as Catherine L. Mann, OECD chief economist, Peter Praet, Member of the ECB's Executive Board, and Jean-Luc Tavernier, general director of the INSEE (French Statistics Institute).

« Secular Stagnation and Growth Measurement »

Lundi 16 January 2017

Banque de France Conference Center

31, rue Croix des Petits-Champs, Paris

GDP per capita in most advanced economies has slowed down markedly since the 1970s. This slowdown has become more serious in several steps and in particular in the mid-2000s after several years of Information and Communication Technology shock. Should we fear that advanced economies entered a period of lasting low growth? This could not only challenge the efficiency of conventional monetary policy, but also weigh on the sustainability of our social models and public debts. The hypothesis of “secular stagnation” is addressed through three questionsduring this conference, organized in partnership with the Collège de France:

  • Is economic growth underestimated? Technological or consumption pattern changes may induce measurement errors of real wealth production
  • Is it a weak demand phenomenon, amplified by the inefficiency of conventional monetary policies when interest rates come closer to zero, by demographic factors or by the increase in inequality?
  • Is there really a slowdown in the pace of technological progress? Is there still a significant growth potential in the diffusion of innovations across countries and across firms?

You will find below the program of this conference (on invitation solely).

Opening: François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor, Banque de France


Chair: Jean-Luc Tavernier, INSEE
Philippe Aghion, Collège de France -“Missing Growth From Creative Destruction”
Co-authors: Antonin Bergeaud (LSE), Timo Boppart (IIES -Stockholm University), Peter Klenow (Stanford University), Huiyu Li (Fed San Francisco)

John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco-“Does the U.S. have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem?”
Co-authors: David Byrne (Fed Board),Marshall Reinsdorf (Fed Board)
Dan Sichel, Wellesley College-“Tech Prices, Mismeasurement, and the Pace of Innovation”
Co-authors: David Byrne (Fed Board), Stephen Oliner (American Enterprise Institute)


Chair: Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, Banque de France
Luca Fornaro, CREI Barcelone-“Stagnation Traps”
Jordi Gali, CREI Barcelone-“The effects of a Money-Financedfiscal Stimulus”
Benoit Mojon, Banque de France-“Why are real interest rates so low?”
Co-authors: Magali Marx (Banque de France), François Velde (FedChicago)


Chair: Philippe Aghion, Collège de France
Robert Gordon, Northwestern University-“Secular stagnation on the
Supply Side”
Barry Eichengreen, UC Berkeley-“Secular Stagnation: A historical perspective”
Nicholas Crafts, University of Warwick-“Secular Stagnation in the United States in the 1930s: Why Alvin Hansen was wrong?”
Gilbert Cette, Banque de France “Productivity and GDP per capita growth: A long term perspective”
Co-authors: Antonin Bergeaud (LSE), Rémy Lecat (Banque de France)


Moderator: Anne Le Lorier, Banque de France
Claudio Borio, BIS
Catherine L. Mann, OECD
Fabrice Lenglart, France Stratégie
Peter Praet, ECB

Updated on: 05/11/2017 11:21