“Secular Stagnation and Growth Measurement” - Conference organised by the Banque de France and the Collège de France

« Secular Stagnation and Growth Measurement »

Lundi 16 January 2017

Banque de France Conference Center

31, rue Croix des Petits-Champs, Paris

GDP per capita in most advanced economies has slowed down markedly since the 1970s. This slowdown has become more serious in several steps and in particular in the mid-2000s after several years of Information and Communication Technology shock. Should we fear that advanced economies entered a period of lasting low growth? This could not only challenge the efficiency of conventional monetary policy, but also weigh on the sustainability of our social models and public debts. The hypothesis of “secular stagnation” is addressed through three questionsduring this conference, organized in partnership with the Collège de France:

• Is economic growth underestimated? Technological or consumption pattern changes may induce measurement errors of real wealth production
• Is it a weak demand phenomenon, amplified by the inefficiency of conventional monetary policies when interest rates come closer to zero, by demographic factors or by the increase in inequality?
• Is there really a slowdown in the pace of technological progress? Is there still a significant growth potential in the diffusion of innovations across countries and across firms?

You will find below the program of this conference (on invitation solely).

Opening: François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor, Banque de France

SESSION 1: MEASUREMENT ASPECTS

Chair: Jean-Luc Tavernier, INSEE
Philippe Aghion, Collège de France -“Missing Growth From Creative Destruction”
Co-authors: Antonin Bergeaud (LSE), Timo Boppart (IIES -Stockholm University), Peter Klenow (Stanford University), Huiyu Li (Fed San Francisco)

John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco-“Does the U.S. have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem?”
Co-authors: David Byrne (Fed Board),Marshall Reinsdorf (Fed Board)
Dan Sichel, Wellesley College-“Tech Prices, Mismeasurement, and the Pace of Innovation”
Co-authors: David Byrne (Fed Board), Stephen Oliner (American Enterprise Institute)