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Modelling and Forecasting wage and price dynamics in France, the US and the euro area Paris, 4-5 December 2002

Seminar's Programme

  • 14:00 - 14:05 Introductory remarks (M.-O. Strauss-Kahn, Banque de France)

Session 1

  • 14:05 - 18:30 - Forecasting inflation : theory and applications
    Chair : A. Banerjee (European University Institute, Florence)
  • 14:10 - 16:35 session 1A
    1. K. Hubrich (European Central Bank)
      "Forecasting euro area inflation : Does aggregating forecasts by component improve forecast accuracy ?"
      discussant : B. Pluyaud (Banque de France-SEMEP)
    2. C. Bruneau (University Paris X, Thema and Banque de France), O . De Bandt, A. Flageollet and E. Michaux (Banque de France - SEMEP)
      "Forecasting inflation in France and the euro area"
      discussant : A. Banerjee (Florence)
    3. A. Banerjee (European University Institute, Florence), M. Marcellino (Bocconi University Milan)
      "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP Growth ?"
      discussant : F. Altissimo (Banca d'Italia)
  • 16:35 - 16:50 : coffee break
  • 16:50 - 18:30 session 1B
    1. G. Moser (OeNB), J. Scharler, (S. Fraser University)
      "Evaluating Factor Model Forecasts for Austrian inflation"
      discussant : R. Mestre (European Central Bank)
    2. A T. Levin (Federal Reserve Board, US) and J.M.Piger (Federal Reserve Bank of St- Louis (US)
      "Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic In Industrial Economies ?"
      discussant : Jesper Linde (Sveriges Risbank) Seminar dinner (20:30)

Session 2

  • 9:00 - 13:15 - Modelling wages, prices and unemployment
    Chair : K.Juselius (Copenhagen University)
  • 9:00 - 11:15 session 2A
    1. H.M.M. Peeters and A.H.J. den Reijer (Nederlandsche Bank)
      "Wage formation, wage developments and unemployment"
      discussant : E. Moral (Banco d'Espana)
    2. R. Mestre (European Central Bank) - S. Fabiani (Banca d'Italia)
      "A system approach for measuring the Euro Area Nairu"
      discussant : Insee ou C. Bruneau
    3. K. Juselius (Copenhagen University)
      "Wage, price and unemployment dynamics in the Eurowide area"
      discussant : F. Mihoubi (Bank of France and University Evry)
  • 11:15 - 11:30 coffee break
  • 11:30 - 13:15 session 2B
    1. R. Desplatz (Ministère des Finances, Forecasting Directorate), S. Jamet (Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, DARES), V . Passeron (INSEE), F.Romans (INSEE)
      "La modération salariale en France : quelques éléments d'analyse" version provisoire
      discussant : M. Baghli (Bank of France)
    2. S. Moyen (Université d'Evry) and J.G Sahuc (Banque de France, CR)
      "Labor Market Search into Optimizing-Based Monetary Policy Model of the Euro Area"
      discussant : Y. Saks (National Bank of Belgium)
  • Seminar lunch

Session 3

  • 15:00 - 18:00 - The new Phillips Curve
    Chair : G. Cette (Banque de France)
    1. L. Guerrieri (Federal Reserve Board, US)
      "The inflation persistence of staggered contracts"
      discussant : H. Le Bihan (Banque de France-C.R.)
    2. J. Matheron (Banque de France - C.R.)
      "Evaluating the Fit of Sticky Price Models"
      discussant : M. Price (Bank of England)
    3. M. Paloviita and D. Mayes (Bank of Finland)
      "Asymmetry and inflation dynamics in different specifications of the Phillips Curve for the Euro Area"
      discussant : G. Rünstler (European Central Bank)
    4. A. Willman and P. Mc Adam (European Central Bank)
      "New Keynesian Phillips curves : a reassessment based on euro area data"
      discussant : J. Matheron (Banque de France, C. R.)

Scientific Committee
S. Avouyi-Dovi (Banque de France)
C. Bruneau (University Paris X, Thema and Banque de France)
O. De Bandt (Banque de France)

Updated on: 10/25/2017 16:27