18th june 2018 - Productivity dynamics after the crisis

On 18 June 2018, the Banque de France and the College de France have organized their second annual conference on productivity dynamics after the crisis. Most advanced economies experience a slowdown in productivity growth. In the United States, labor productivity has grown at an average 1.1% per year since 2005 whereas growth was twice larger from 1995 to 2004. In European countries, productivity growth continuously decreased since the 1980s and has averaged at less than 1% per year since 2005. This slowdown is not only due to cyclical fluctuation or to the consequences of the Great Recession. The disappointing gains from the ICT revolution in terms of productivity has fueled concerns that the age of great innovations which translated strongly to growth is now over. But on the other side of the spectrum, some argue that we are at the dawn of a new era of fast growth spurs by upcoming major technological changes: robotization, artificial intelligence, biotechnologies… To better understand what the future of productivity could be, it is therefore essential to understand its dynamics before, during and after the Great Recession and the role of its different drivers.
This conference introduced by Sylvie Goulard, brought together high-level academics, researchers from central banks and international organizations, such as P. Aghion and J. van Reenen, or S. Balsandze, S. Basu, G. Cette, R. Duval, J. G. Fernald, J. Jimeno, F. Manaresi, C. Lelarge, G. Nicoletti and R. Veugelers.

9:00

Welcome coffee – Registration

9:30

Introduction by Sylvie Goulard, deputy governor of the Banque de France

10:00

Session 1: Financial factors and productivity
Chair: Susanto Basu (Boston College)

 

Credit Supply and Productivity Growth
Francesco Manaresi (Banca d’Italia), with Nicola Pierri

 

Monetary Policy, Product Market Deregulation and Intangible Investment:
Firm-Level Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis

Romain Duval (IMF), with JaeBin Ahn & Can Sever

 

Productivity and Credit Constraint
Gilbert Cette (Banque de France), with Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Rémy Lecat & Hélène Maghin

12:00

Lunch

13:15

Keynote: John Van Reenen (MIT)
Superstar Firms and the Decline of Labor’s Share

14:15

Session 2: Innovation, TFP dynamics and the recovery
Chair: Reinhilde Veugelers (KU Leuven)

 

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
John Fernald (INSEAD), with Robert Hall, James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson

 

Patents to Products: Innovation and Firm Performance
Salome Balsandze (EIEF), with David Argente, Douglas Hanley & Sara Moreira

15:30

Coffee Break

16:00

Keynote: Philippe Aghion (Collège de France, LSE)
Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth

17:00

Session 3: Implications of technological change
Chair: Claire Lelarge (Banque de France)

 

From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes
Juan Jimeno (Banco de España), with Henrique Basso

 

Decoding the digital-productivity nexus: industry-level evidence from OECD countries
Giuseppe Nicoletti (OECD), with Peter Gal, Théodore Renault & Christina Timiliotis

Updated on: 07/12/2018 18:12