La Banque de France , l’OCDE et DBnomics organisent une conférence virtuelle l’économie en temps réel « une nouvelle plateforme publique pour analyser les impacts du COVID-19 et des politiques macroéconomiques à l'aide des données du secteur privé », le 10 septembre 2020.
As part of the project on high frequency indicators with OECD and DBnomics, we are organizing a seminar with Michael Stepner (Harvard, UToronto) to present insights from a major project real-time data on COVID-19 and macroeconomic policies, hosted at https://opportunityinsights.org/:
Real-Time Economics: A New Public Platform to Analyze the Impacts of COVID-19 and Macroeconomic Policies Using Private Sector Data
ZOOM meeting, 10 september 2020, 4:00pm – 6:00pm
This paper a publicly available platform that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We use this data to study the mechanisms through which COVID-19 aﬀected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts. We ﬁrst show that high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in mid-March, which greatly reduced the revenues of businesses that cater to high-income households in person, notably small businesses in aﬄuent ZIP codes. These businesses laid oﬀ most of their low-income employees, leading to a surge in unemployment claims in aﬄuent areas. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we use event study designs to estimate the causal eﬀects of policies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of COVID-19. State-ordered reopenings have small impacts on spending and employment. Stimulus payments to low-income households increased consumer spending sharply, but very little of this increased spending ﬂowed to businesses most aﬀected by the COVID-19 shock, dampening its impacts on employment. Paycheck Protection Program loans increased employment at small businesses modestly, by approximately 2.5%, implying a cost per job saved in excess of $300,000. These results suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools – stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses – have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns. More broadly, this analysis shows how public statistics can be constructed from private sector data to support many research and policy analyses without compromising privacy, providing a new tool for real time empirical macroeconomics.
Michael Stepner is a post-doctoral fellow at Opportunity Insights based at Harvard University and will be an assistant professor at the University of Toronto starting in July 2021. He also serves as the network leader for Health Trends and Inequalities research at the NBER Center for Aging and Health Research, and as a guest editor for the COVID-19 special issue for the Canadian Public Policy journal. He received his PhD from MIT in 2019, and his dissertation research was awarded the top dissertation award from the National Academy of Social Insurance.
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Mis à jour le : 08/09/2020 12:04