Task Force on Global Trade “Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade: what is the new normal?”
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Matthieu Bussière, Walter Steingress et Guillaume Gaulier, chercheurs à la DGEI ont participé à un atelier consacré à la faiblesse du commerce international le 20 juin à Paris. Il a rassemblé cinquante experts internationaux de différentes banques centrales, du Fonds monétaire international, de l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques et de la Commission européenne.
Co-présidé par Franck Moss, Banque centrale européenne, et Bruno Cabrillac, directeur des Études et des Relations internationales et européennes, cet atelier s’inscrit dans le cadre des travaux d’une force opérationnelle du comité des relations internationales du Système européen de banques centrales. »
Programme
Opening address
Bruno Cabrillac (Banque de France) and Frank Moss (European Central Bank)
Presentation of the Task Force report
- Judit Rariga (Magyar Nemzeti Bank): Introduction and conceptual framework
- Ulf Slopek (Deutsche Bundesbank): Stylized facts and compositional changes
- Alexander Al-Haschimi (European Central Bank): Global value chains
- Martin Gächter (European Central Bank): Trade and financial frictions
Discussion I
Bernard Hoekman (European University Institute)
Discussion II
Joseph Francois (World Trade Institute)
Session 1: The role of China in global trade
Chair: Louis Morel (Bank of Canada)
- Guillaume Gaulier (Banque de France), Walter Steingress (Banque de France) and Soledad Zignago (Banque de France): “The role of China in the recent trade slowdown” Slide
- George Alessandria (University of Rochester), Horag Choi (Monash University) and Dan Lu (University of Rochester): “China’s Imbalances: Trade Integration in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model” Slide
Discussion: Przemek Wozniak (European Commission) Slide
Session 2: The dynamics of global trade
Chair: Jaime Martinez-Martin (Banco de España)
- Aqib Aslam (International Monetary Fund), Emine Boz (International Monetary Fund), Eugenio Cerutti (International Monetary Fund), Marcos Poplawski (International Monetary Fund) and Petia Topalova (International Monetary Fund): “Global Trade: What’s Behind the Slowdown?”
- Alessandro Borin (Banca d’Italia), Virginia Di Nino (Banca d’Italia), Michele Mancini (Banca d’Italia) and Massimo Sbracia (Banca d’Italia): “The Cyclicality of the Income Elasticity of Trade”
Discussion: Walter Steingress (Banque de France)
- John Lewis (Bank of England) and Selien De Schryder (Bank of England): “Export dynamics since the Great Trade Collapse: a cross-country analysis” Slide
- Alexei Kireyev (International Monetary Fund) and Andrei Kireyev (Lebedev Institute): “Can Network Effects and Counter-Shock Policies Weaken International Trade” Slide
Discussion: Julia Wörz (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) Slide
Session 3: Monetary and trade policies
Chair: Cyrille Schwellnus (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
- Malik Shukayev (University of Alberta) and Yuko Imura (Bank of Canada): “The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy” Slide
- Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies), Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies) and Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies): “Assessing the Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports” Slide
Discussion: Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France)
Comité d’organisation:
Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), Bruno Cabrillac (Banque de France), Martin Gaechter (European Central Bank), Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France), Alexander Al-Haschimi (European Central Bank), Stelios Makrydakis (European Central Bank), Frank Moss (European Central Bank), Walter Steingress (Banque de France)
Mis à jour le : 12/06/2018 10:59