Conférence annuelle du second Cluster de l’Eurosystème Cluster de recherche portant sur la macroéconomie internationale, la politique budgétaire, l’économie du travail, la compétitivité et la gouvernance de la zone euro

Wednesday, 7th November

13:30 – 14:00

Registration & coffee

14:00 – 14:30

Welcome address : Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier (Banque de France - Deputy Director, Directorate Microeconomic and Structural Analysis)

Introduction: Antoine Berthou (Banque de France) & James Costain (ECB)

14:30 – 16:30

Allocation, finance, & productivity
Session chair: Peter McAdam (ECB)

Allocative efficiency & finance
Enrico Sette (Banca d’Italia), Andrea Petrella (Banca d’Italia), & Andrea Linarello (Banca d’Italia)
Discussant: Filippos Petroulakis (ECB) - Slides

Investment, financial frictions & the dynamic effects of monetary policy
Clodomiro Ferreira (Banco de España), James Cloyne (University of California Davis, NBER & CEPR), Maren Froemel (London Business School) & Paolo Surico (London Business School & CEPR) - Slides
Discussant: Philip Vermeulen (ECB) - Slides

Local sourcing & production efficiency
Emmanuel Dhyne (Banque Nationale de Belgique) & Cédric Duprez (Banque Nationale de Belgique) - Slides
Discussant: Claire Giordano (Banca d’Italia) - Slides

16:30 – 17:00

Coffee break

17:00 – 18:00

Summary of ongoing project-based research
Session chair:  Antoine Berthou (Banque de France)

Productivity & selection versus reallocation
Matteo Bugamelli (Banca d’Italia)

Firm dynamics
Emmanuel Dhyne (Banque Nationale de Belgique)

CompNet
Paloma Lopez (ECB)

8:30 – 9:30

Coffee

9:30 – 10:50

Integration vs. Protectionism
Session chair: Matteo Bugamelli (Banca d’Italia)

The cost of trade protectionism: evidence from Spanish firms & non-tariff measures
Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España) & Dmitri Kirpichev (CEMFI) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Andrea Lamorgese (Banca d’Italia, TBC) - Slides

The effects of euro adoption on firm-level exports
Jaanika Meriküll (Bank of Estonia) & Tibor Lalinsky (National Bank of Slovakia) - Slides
Discussant: João Amador (Banco de Portugal) - Slides

10:50 – 11:30

11:30 - 12:10

A structural quantitative analysis of services trade de-liberalization
Sven Blank (Deutsche Bundesbank), Peter Egger (ETH Zürich), Valeria Merlo (Universität Tübingen) & Georg Wamser (Universität Tübingen) - Paper -
Discussant: Vanessa Gunella (ECB)

12:30 – 14:00

Lunch

14:00 – 16:00

Protectionism & imbalances
Session chair: Jesper Lindé (Sveriges Riksbank)

Nobody wins: Protectionism & (un)employment in a model-based analysis
Pascal Jacquinot (ECB), Matija Lozej (Central Bank of Ireland) & M. Pisani  (Banca d’Italia)
Discussant: Daniele Siena (Banque de France) - Slides

Global imbalances, labor market reforms & precautionary savings
Nikolai Stähler (Deutsche Bundesbank), Stéphane Moyen  (Deutsche Bundesbank), & Brigitte Hochmuth (University of Erlangen-Nürnberg) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Olivier Pierrard (Central Bank of Luxembourg)

Trade & currency weapons
Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Paris School of Economics) & Pauline Wibaux (Paris School of Economics) - Slides
Discussant: Mathias Hoffmann (Deutsche Bundesbank) - Slides

16:00 – 16:20

Coffee break

16:20 – 18:20

Productivity, growth, & structural change
Session chair: Ana Lamo (ECB)

Connecting to power: Political connections, innovation, & firm dynamics
Francesca Lotti (Banca d’Italia), Ufuk Akcigit (University of Chicago & NBER) & Salomé Baslandze (Einaudi Institute for Economics & Finance & CEPR) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Juan Mora Sanguinetti (Banco de España)

Computer adoption & the changing labor market
Filip Rozsypal (Danmarks Nationalbank) & Miguel Morin (Alan Turing Institute) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Antonin Bergeaud (Banque de France) - Slides

Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence, & the productivity slowdown
Michaela Schmöller (Bank of Finland) & Martin Spitzer (ECB) - Slides
Discussant: Marcin Bielecki (Narodowy Bank Polski) - Slides

20:00

Conference dinner

8:30 – 9:00

Coffee

9:00 – 11:00

Adjustment of labor markets
Session chair: Jan Babecky (Czech National Bank)

Short-time work & employment in the Great Recession in France
Sandra Nevoux (Banque de France), Pierre Cahuc (Ecole Polythecnique) & Francis Kramarz (CREST-ENSAE) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Matthias Hertweck (Deutsche Bundesbank) - Slides

Immigrants, labor market dynamics, & adjustment to shocks in the euro area
Gaetano Basso (Banca d’Italia), Francesco D’Amuri (Banca d’Italia) & Giovanni Peri (UC Davis & NBER) - Paper
Discussant: John Lewis (Bank of England) - Slides

Labor market asymmetries in a monetary union: implications for optimal policy
Rana Sajedi (Bank of England) & Guilherme Bandeira (Banco de España)
Discussant: Theodora Kosma (Bank of Greece) - Slides

11:00 – 11:30

Coffee break

11:30 – 12:30

Keynote Lecture :Consumption-led growth
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, (UC Berkeley) - Slides

12:30 – 14:00

Lunch

14:00 – 15:20

Fiscal multipliers & fiscal sustainability
Session chair: Mathias Hoffmann (Bundesbank)

On the merits of conventional vs. unconventional fiscal policy
Matthieu Lemoine (Banque de France) & Jesper Lindé (Sveriges Riksbank & CEPR) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Ansgar Rannenberg (Banque Nationale de Belgique) - Slides

Sectoral heterogeneity, production networks, & the effects of government spending
Omar Rachedi (Banco de España), Hafedh Bouakez (HEC Montréal), Emiliano Santoro (University of Copenhagen)
Discussant: Luca Metelli (Banca d’Italia) - Slides

15:20 – 15:40

Coffee break

15:40 -17:40

Fiscal & monetary policy interactions
Session chair: Luca Dedola (ECB)

Fiscal & monetary interactions: a strategic approach
Jean Barthelemy (Banque de France) & Guillaume Plantin (Sciences Po) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Roberto Billi (Sveriges Riksbank & ECB) - Slides

Dynamic fiscal limits & monetary-fiscal policy interactions
Luca Zavalloni (Central Bank of Ireland), Niccolo Battistini (ECB) & Giovanni Callegari (ECB)
Discussant: Robert Ambrisko (Czech National Bank) - Slides

Designing QE in a fiscally sound monetary union
Tilman Bletzinger (ECB) & Leopold von Thadden (ECB) - Paper - Slides
Discussant: Dominik Thaler (Banco de España) - Slides

17:40

Adjourn conference