 |
Modelling and Forecasting wage and price dynamics in France, the US and the euro area
Paris, 4-5 December 2002
Seminar's Programme
14:00 - 14:05 Introductory remarks (M.-O. Strauss-Kahn, Banque de France)
Session 1
14:05 - 18:30 - Forecasting inflation : theory and applications
Chair : A. Banerjee (European University Institute, Florence)
14:10 - 16:35 session 1A
 K. Hubrich (European Central Bank)
"Forecasting euro area inflation : Does aggregating forecasts by component improve forecast accuracy ?"
discussant : B. Pluyaud (Banque de France-SEMEP)
C. Bruneau (University Paris X, Thema and Banque de France), O . De Bandt, A. Flageollet and E. Michaux (Banque de France - SEMEP)
"Forecasting inflation in France and the euro area"
discussant : A. Banerjee (Florence)
A. Banerjee (European University Institute, Florence), M. Marcellino (Bocconi University Milan)
"Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP Growth ?"
discussant : F. Altissimo (Banca d'Italia)
16:35 - 16:50 : coffee break
16:50 - 18:30 session 1B
-
G. Moser (OeNB), J.
Scharler, (S. Fraser University)
"Evaluating Factor Model Forecasts for Austrian inflation"
discussant : R. Mestre (European Central Bank)
-
A T. Levin (Federal
Reserve Board, US) and J.M.Piger (Federal Reserve Bank of St- Louis (US)
"Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic In Industrial Economies ?"
discussant : Jesper Linde (Sveriges Risbank) Seminar dinner (20:30)
Session 2
9:00 - 13:15 - Modelling wages, prices and unemployment
Chair : K.Juselius (Copenhagen University)
9:00 - 11:15 session 2A
-
H.M.M. Peeters and A.H.J. den Reijer (Nederlandsche Bank)
"Wage formation, wage developments and unemployment"
discussant : E. Moral (Banco d'Espana)
-
R. Mestre (European Central Bank) - S. Fabiani (Banca d'Italia)
"A system approach for measuring the Euro Area Nairu"
discussant : Insee ou C. Bruneau
-
K. Juselius (Copenhagen
University)
"Wage, price and unemployment dynamics in the Eurowide area"
discussant : F. Mihoubi (Bank of France and University Evry)
11:15 - 11:30 coffee break
11:30 - 13:15 session 2B
-
R. Desplatz (Ministère des Finances, Forecasting Directorate), S. Jamet (Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, DARES), V . Passeron (INSEE), F.Romans (INSEE)
"La modération salariale en France : quelques éléments d'analyse" version provisoire
discussant : M. Baghli (Bank of France)
-
S. Moyen (Université d'Evry) and J.G Sahuc (Banque de France, CR)
"Labor Market Search into Optimizing-Based Monetary Policy Model of the Euro Area"
discussant : Y. Saks (National Bank of Belgium)
Seminar lunch
Session 3
15:00 - 18:00 - The new Phillips Curve
Chair : G. Cette (Banque de France)
-
L. Guerrieri (Federal
Reserve Board, US)
"The inflation persistence of staggered contracts"
discussant : H. Le Bihan (Banque de France-C.R.)
-
J. Matheron (Banque
de France - C.R.)
"Evaluating the Fit of Sticky Price Models"
discussant : M. Price (Bank of England)
-
M. Paloviita and D. Mayes (Bank of Finland)
"Asymmetry and inflation dynamics in different specifications of the Phillips Curve for the Euro Area"
discussant : G. Rünstler (European Central Bank)
-
A. Willman and P. Mc
Adam (European Central Bank)
"New Keynesian Phillips curves : a reassessment based on euro area data"
discussant : J. Matheron (Banque de France, C. R.)
Scientific Committee
S. Avouyi-Dovi (Banque de France)
C. Bruneau (University Paris X, Thema and Banque de France)
O. De Bandt (Banque de France)
|
